And like for seasonal temperature and precipitation, knowing the state of ENSO is a pretty reasonable place to start. This was based upon recent trends over the past decade. Forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center give about a 70-80% chance for weak La Nia conditions to occur from about October 2021 to January 2022. . Realtime MJO information that is updated daily or weekly can be found on the NOAA CPCMJO webpage. This U.S. Winter Outlook 2021-2022 map for temperature shows warmer-than-average conditions across the South and most of the eastern U.S., while below average temperatures are favored for southeast Alaska and the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Northern Plains. And that is consistent with forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA. Select Another Zone. Sign in. Due toLa Nia, drought is expected to develop from southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado south into Texas this winter. In the Upper Mississippi River Valley, these winters can be highly variable with both temperatures and precipitation. The largest signal is present in the south and southeast (including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri), except in Florida where the opposite relation is observed. In the South and Southeast, where the signal is strongest, we see a clear shift in activity with the ENSO phase, but with a tremendous range of variability, meaning some El Nio years still have high severe weather activity, and some La Nia years are relatively inactive. Figure 2. We have been doing winter outlooks since 2005-2006 and have evaluated ourselves after the fact for the past 16 winters. Since long-range forecasts are rarely accurate or useful for finding . The CPC winter forecasts to the right showthe most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but this is not the only possible outcome. Shes been a part of the northwest news scene since the early 1990s. Theseries of maps to the right shows temperature patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter seasonDecember through Februarysince 1950 that coincided with La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. MonthlyandDailyvalues for the Arctic Oscillation Index are available from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. NOAA Climate.gov image using data fromESRLandNCEI. Preparedness it is common for La Nia to last for two years or more. Meeting Agenda - May 16-17, 2023 - Washington State Transportation The odds of a blockbuster noreaster coming up the coast and walloping us with snow is lower than average, but cant be entirely ruled out. In other words, they are the boundaries between the lower and middle thirds of the distribution, and between the middle and upper thirds. These shifts would also be expected to impact thunderstorm activity: El Nio tends to shift the jet stream farther south over the U.S., which blocks moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, reducing the fuel for thunderstorms. That water is also cooler this year. Rivers - Quick Look, Cold Are you ready for the upcoming winter season? Arctic Oscillation) may be at play and is worth further investigation. The first official astronomical day of winter arrives on Tuesday, Dec. 21. The green shading denotes conditions favorable for large-scale enhanced rainfall, and the brown shading shows conditions unfavorable for rainfall. The strength and placement of the jet streams, columns of fast-moving air that circle both the northern and southern hemispheres, is a noticeable effect of La Nia. The longest La Nia lasted 33 months. WASHINGTON The Farmers Almanac just released its 2021-22 winter forecast, and it predicts Washington is in for a fairly normal pattern. We graded our outlook a C+. Measures of these tornado-friendly ingredients can be combined into indexes that are less noisy than actual tornado reports and let us see how the phases of ENSO make the environment more or less favorable for severe weather (footnote 1). Until recently, the only solid evidence showing that more tornadoes occur during La Nia conditions was for winter (January-March), when the ENSO signal is strongest, but average tornado activity is relatively low (Cook & Schaefer, 2008). When La Nia develops across the tropical central/eastern Pacific Ocean, it can affect areas thousands of miles away, including the United States. KUOW is the Puget Sound regions #1 radio station for news. Thompson, D.W.J., S. Lee, and M.P. Already a member? Climate Outlook | Office of the Washington State Climatologist Any concerns about wildfires this fall? Since the blizzard of 2016 the fourth biggest snowfall on record with more than 17 inches of snow at Reagan National Airport and well over 2 feet in many areas four of the next five winters have been below average for snowfall. Winter temperatures will be milder than normal, with slightly below-normal precipitation and snowfall. Because a weak La Nia means that the forcing from the Pacific is weaker than normal, it may imply other mechanisms (e.g. But State Climatologist Nick . Sun & Moon. It turns out their ideas are very similar to ours, and there is a strong consensus for near to slightly above-average temperatures and near to below-average snowfall. Conversely, AO's negative phase has higher-than-average air pressure over the Arctic region and lower-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. However, seasonal forecasting has advanced to the point that we can make educated guesses on the overall tendency of conditions, such as how temperatures and snowfall will compare to average over a month or period of several months. TEI and HEI are calibrated to match the recent climatology of tornado numbers and hail events. Hazardous Weather Outlook From the AGU monograph on the North Atlantic Oscillation, 293, 85-89. The seasonal drought outlook shows no drought in Western Washington, with conditions improving east of the Cascades. December: 1 to 2 degrees colder than average, Reagan National Airport (DCA): 8 to 12 inches (compared with a 13.7-inch average), Dulles International Airport (IAD): 12 to 16 inches (compared with a 21-inch average), Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport (BWI): 10 to 15 inches (compared with a 19.3-inch average), Fairfax, Loudoun, Montgomery counties: 10 to 18 inches, Alexandria, Arlington and Prince Georges counties and the District: 8 to 14 inches. Oh, yeah, definitely. No two winters are alike, but we expect this winter to share some similarities with the winters of 1950-51 (snowfall: 10.2 inches), 1955-56 (snowfall: 11.3 inches), 1970-71 (snowfall: 11.7 inches). NOAA Climate.gov image using data fromESRLandNCEI. The MJO consists of two parts, orphases: one is the enhanced rainfall (orconvective) phase and the other is the suppressed rainfall phase. When it is strongly positive, it often correlates with a cold and stormy pattern for the Mid-Atlantic. Nationally, AccuWeather predicts an eventful winter similar to the 2020-21 season, which brought record-breaking snowfall and blackouts to some parts of the country. (NOAA Climate.gov, based on NWS CPC data). The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. Two important ingredients for tornadoes areatmospheric instability(e.g., warm, moist air near the surface and cool dry air aloft) andvertical wind shear(winds at different altitudes blowing in different directions or speeds). The Nio-3.4 index has a 66% chance of reaching a value less than -1.0C duringNovember 2021 - January 2022, but only a 14% chance of being below -1.5C. Although the snow may not amount to much, there should be plenty of storms to track. Cooler ocean waters mean that winds over the Pacific are stronger than normal with means rainfall decreases over the northern-tropical Pacific Ocean and so on. SEATTLE With the official start of winter little more than two months away, many in Puget Sound may be growing eager for colder weather to arrive so they can plan some exciting, wintry fun. J. Atmos. References We predict well have several accumulating snow events in the immediate area over the course of the winter, with a couple more in our colder suburbs. That provides a significantly different picture, with the average of the latest events much warmer than the earlier ones. However, not all La Nias are the same, and there are other factors that drive our weather. The AOs cousin, the NAO, is technically a measurement of the differences in air pressure over the North Atlantic Ocean. Site search . 2021-2022 Winter Fuels Outlook: October 2021: PDF: Forecast Sensitivity of Carbon Dioxide Emissions to Temperatures: . Weaker events appear to be associated with more widespread above-average snow over the northern United States. Below are the temperature, precipitation, and snow data for La Crosse, WI, and Rochester, MN. Notably, the forecast calls for: The Great Lakes and Northeast can expect potent winter storms heavy snow, rain or a wintry mix of both during the second week of January, the final week of February and the second week of March. The Northern Plains and Rockies may see a blizzard the third week of January. NV Energy bills projected to skyrocket in July - USA Today Copyright 2023 NBCUniversal Media, LLC. U.S. Winter Outlook: Drier, warmer South, wetter North with return of Rainfall increases over Indonesia (where waters remain warm) and decreases over the central tropical Pacific (which is cool). Winter could pound the Northeast with a vengeance starting in mid-December before potentially intensifying in January, which could include a heightened risk for nor'easters and, yes, snowstorms at the tail end of the season. Reviews of Geophysics,43, 1-36. We expect that this winter the PDO will average negative, perhaps strongly so. In one notable departure from other winter predictions to date, AccuWeather's is more bearish on the precipitation front, expecting Western Washington will fall within the normal range between December and February. When the probability of the favored category becomes very large, such as 70% (which is very rare), the above rule for assigning the probabilities for the two non-favored categories becomes different. NOAA typically releases its official winter predictions in October. The first official astronomical day of winter arrives on Tuesday, Dec. 21. As we progress toward the fall and winter months (August-September-October, ASO 2023 through January-February-March, JFM 2024), El Nio is expected to become more of a factor and the pattern begins to increasingly reflect El Nio conditions during the cold months. We expect the AO and NAO to average slightly negative this winter. No way, experts say. Often, the near-normal category remains at 33.33%, and the category opposite the favored one is below 33.33% by the same amount that the favored category is above 33.33%. How Much Snow to Expect: Doug's 2021-22 Winter Forecast Science / Research Warmer and drier winters are more likely during La Nia over more southern states, and this is exactly where seasonal snowfall tends to be reduced (4). Lets dig a little deeper and look at some of the characteristics within these two convective phases (Figure 3). The Farmers Almanac, established in 1818, publishes its annual extended winter forecast every August. Precipitation Plotter The early arrival of the winter storms will also spell an end to the active wildfire season for the region as rain and snow help to douse any flames. Nature,455, 523-527 doi:10.1038/nature07286 Letter. The record setting winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09, where more than 90 inches of snow fell, were both La Nia winters. Instead of only looking at individual weather events, its important to consider the environmental cues for the outbreak of severe weather. National Weather Service After our second-warmest October on record, the first week of November delivered a chill, offering a taste of the inevitable. increasing across southern parts of the state as the summer progresses. Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how winter turns out. These are tricky forecasts, and we think well have our share of them this winter. best winter forecast preceded the record-breaking Snowmageddon winter of 2009-2010, Our outlook for the winter of 2014-2015 was also quite successful, it was cold, with snow that totaled more than twice the average, has risen between 3 and 5 degrees across the region. To help you plan ahead, the private weather company AccuWeather has released its 2021-2022 winter weather forecast, adding to a growing consensus about what lies ahead. The Climate Prediction Center's current long-range outlook shows favorable chances for below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation between December and February. This doesnt include dustings or ice events; we are likely to have some of those, too. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Nia events. Note that monthly temperature predictions are less reliable than for the whole season. Sign up for free Patch newsletters and alerts. Washingtons new climate normals are hotter and wetter. 2021 SEATTLE Skiers and snowboarders, rejoice! When it is sharply negative, conditions often, but not always, trend warm and dry. Snowfall departure from average for weaker La Nia winters (1950-2009). U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Hourly Weather However, these figures are based on about 20 different La Nia episodes, many of them from the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, and we have not removed the longer-term trends from the temperature and precipitation data used here. Here is a brief summary of their outlooks: Several of these forecasters agree that winter will start fast with cold, snowy conditions before trending milder. The MJO can produce impacts similar to those of ENSO, but which appear only in weekly averages before changing, rather than persisting and therefore appearing in seasonal averages as is the case for ENSO. Maloney E. and D. Hartmann, 2000: Modulation of hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Authorities Widen Dragnet for Suspect in Texas Shooting That Left 5 Dead, 3 People Found Dead in Home in Springfield, Virginia; Toddler Found Alive, Family Awaits Return of DC Mother Missing for More Than 3 Weeks. All right. 2000, Cassou, 2008, Lin et al. However, Pacific Northwest snow fans should not lose faith just yet. Figure3: The surface and upper-atmosphere structure of the MJO for a period when the enhanced convective phase (thunderstorm cloud) is centered across the Indian Ocean and the suppressed convective phase is centered over the west-central Pacific Ocean. Climate.gov figure based on analysis at CPC using Rutgers gridded snow data. The AO is a measurement of surface air pressure at the high latitudes over and north of Greenland. To first order, the green shading areas correspond to the extent of the enhanced convective phase of the MJO and the brown shading areas correspond to the extent of the suppressed convective phase of the MJO. And I was not convinced that they had much skill in their forecasts. Join our Farmhouse Today. Climate Dyn.,40,17491766. Climate,15, 905-914. In fact, the temperature forecasts were no better than flipping a coin, and precipitation forecasts were actually a little bit worse. But what's really going on in the climate system is that the tropical Pacific is cooling off and it's likely we'll have weak to moderate La Nina conditions. Differences between the two periods for the precipitation composites are much smaller and therefore are not shown here. February should offer some reprieve from storms. A clearer picture of the impact of ENSO emerges when we look at the ingredients that are conducive to tornado and thunderstorm occurrence (Allen et al., 2015a). Overall, stronger La Nia events exert more influence on the winter climate pattern over western North America. Parts of the Northeast, Ohio Valley and far western United States could see heavy rains and snow toward the end of February. On the other hand, La Nia is associated with a more wavy and northward shifted jet stream, which might be expected to enhance severe weather activity in the south and southeast. Washington . Consequently, locations in the mid-latitudes are more likely to experience outbreaks of frigid, polar air during winters when the AO is negative. NWS Long-Range Weather Forecast for 2022 | The Old Farmer's Almanac Splitting La Nia events into strength reveals some interesting differences worth investigating further. Public Information Statement NOAA Climate.gov image using data fromESRLandNCEI. This winter is expected to be a "weak" La Nina, with temperature departures only expected after 0.6 to 0.7 Celsius cooler than normal. La Nia literally means "the little girl." Pressures lower than normal indicate the positive phase, and pressures higher than normal, the negative phase. SPOKANE, Wash. Looking ahead to the upcoming winter season, La Nia conditions are likely to develop for the second straight year. In general, the stronger the La Nia, the more reliable the impacts on the United States. Its calling for above average temperatures and below-average snowfall (5 to 13 inches), in line with everyone elses expectations. I have serious doubts about that. The MJO becomes organized during late March through May as the green shading covers one half of the planet, and brown shades the other half all along as these areas move west to east with time. This was based upon recent trends over the past decade. Sci.,29, 1109-1123. These are the factors Storm Team4 Chief Meteorologist Doug Kammerer takes into account when forecasting the winter. Temp/Pcpn Summary The entire system shifts eastward over time, eventually circling the globe and returning to its point of origin. Overall, January will be stormy, especially along the Atlantic Seaboard, with bouts of rain, snow, sleet and ice. What Is the Debt Limit and What Happens If the US Defaults? Please select one of the following: is slightly favoredinsoutheast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, andwestern Wisconsin. WRN Ambassadors, Additional Information A negative AO in the winter months often correlates with a cold pattern in our region, and supports winter storms when other factors align with it, particularly when we have a negative NAO as well. of Transportation: Information on travel alerts, road conditions, ferry schedules, construction areas, etc. Blue shading shows Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Winter 2021-22 Outlook - National Weather Service Storm Summaries So colder and wetter winter is favored, and for Spokane that can lead to more snow than normal. These remain low-confidence forecasts. Part I: Month-to-month variability. Want to see the total eclipse in 2024? Get The 7 DMV newsletter in your inbox every weekday morning. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) refers to an atmospheric circulation pattern over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The MJO was first discovered in the early 1970s by Dr. Roland Madden and Dr. Paul Julian when they were studying tropical wind and pressure patterns. So the landscape has dried out. During the past 15 years (optimal climate normal). Precipitation tends to be below-average across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than average across the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. All rights reserved, Metropolitan Police Department (DC Police / MPD), Newly Renovated DC Police Memorial Unveiled, Montgomery County Man Charged With Raping Girl, Watch News4: Live and Replays on NBC4 App, Peacock, Roku, Samsung TV Plus & Xumo Play. Search Search. This was the major factor in our historically snowy winter of 2009-10. No single factor tells the whole story, nor are the correlations between past conditions and future conditions which we used to inform the outlook always strong. Climate Dyn., 38, 1459-1471. Figure 1. La Nia is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~90% chance) and into spring 2022 (~50% chance during March-May). The typical U.S. impacts are warmer- and drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the United States, colder-than-average conditions across the north-central Plains, and wetter-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest stretching into northern California. Sven R. Larson. Equal chance display areas where confidence is low, so there is an equal chance of it being among the warmest third, near-normal, or among the coldest third. Angela King is the local host of Morning Edition. We are currently experiencing a strengthening La Nia event, which is indicated by colder-than-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Fast, informative and written just for locals. New e-regulations for coastal rivers for 2022-23 season: - Coastal rivers and tributaries fishing rules update (Nov 2022) More information. 2022 Forecasts. However, tornado and severe weather activity is more variable (noisier and harder to predict) than ordinary weather (think temperature and precipitation), and any ENSO signal is harder to see. Usually in weaker La Nia events, we experience frequent and often brief oscillations from warm to cold and back again, although the cold outbreaks are typically dry. The polar jet stream tends to ridge over a semi-permanent High Pressure over the North Pacific and dips towards the Pacific Northwest. The Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature is negatively correlated with the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, meaning when the tropical Pacific is cooler than average (La Nia), the Gulf of Mexico is usually warmer than average. WASHINGTON - The. The changes in rainfall and winds described above impact both the Tropics and the Extratropics, which makes the MJO important for extended-range weather and climate prediction over the U.S. and many other areas. Review of Winter 2020-21 | Office of the Washington State Climatologist 2023 Realtor.com Forecast: 2022 Realtor.com Housing Data Expectations . To see how the weather is shaping up for the remainder of the country, click here.
